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Expected Value Calculator
Calculate the mathematical expected profit of a bet. Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected Value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you placed the same bet thousands of times. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is mathematically profitable over the long run, even if you lose individual bets.
How to Use This Calculator
Enter your honest estimate of the fighter's win probability — not what the odds say, but what you genuinely believe. Then enter the odds being offered. If the EV is positive, the bet offers value. The higher the EV, the better the bet.
Why EV Matters More Than Wins
Professional bettors don't chase wins — they chase +EV bets. A bet can lose and still have been the correct decision if it was +EV. Over hundreds of bets, consistently finding +EV opportunities is what separates profitable bettors from recreational ones. Think of each bet as a business decision, not a prediction.
Example
You estimate a fighter has a 55% chance of winning. The sportsbook offers +110 odds (implied probability 47.6%). Your edge is 7.4% — this is a strong +EV bet. Over 100 bets like this, you'd expect to profit significantly.